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Climate Change and Ecosystem Modelling

Project Outputs

Lead Partner:

This project aims to develop a climate and ecosystem modelling capability to underpin decisions at national level in climate adaptation, initially for the seafood sector with potential applicability in other sectors e.g. biodiversity, flooding, built heritage. By assessing and piloting 3 promising ocean biogeochemistry models in the Celtic Sea, simulations of changes in ocean physics, biology and chemistry over a 30 - 50 year timescale will be generated to inform the policy response and adaptation to climate change. The models provide information on changes in many essential climate variables including temperature, salinity, ocean currents, sea state, plankton groups, ocean carbon and nutrients.

Specifically, the project will:

1. Liaise with stakeholders in DAFM to gather precise climate adaptation requirements for the seafood sector and assess the overall fitness for purpose of the model projections produced in the project.
2. Set-up and run the BFM model for the Celtic Sea to generate output for the period from the present day to 2050 and assess changes in key biological and chemical processes in this region over the model timeframe.
3. Set-up and run the PISCES biogeochemistry model over the same domain and directly compare PISCES with BFM and validate both models against available observations.
4. Assess the two abovementioned models against a simpler ecosystem model (NPZD) to establish the added value of using models with enhanced complexity in the context of informing policy makers.

Project Status:
Project Outputs:

1. Future model simulations using several biogeochemical models to yield insights into future changes in processes of importance to fisheries and aquaculture in Irish waters.
2. Model output produced in a format that will allow seamless use of the output for sectoral and local authority adaptation plans. e.g. Ireland’s Marine Atlas, GIS systems at departmental level.
3. Bespoke products developed with DAFM stakeholders that convert the model data into actionable information.
4. Report detailing the main climate model findings and recommendations for policy.

Project Cost - Projected: